Schedule: FAA flight plans.

JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1586 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

B6 1586 · MCO → BUF

took off 6:00 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 5:55 PM ET → 8:46 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 1586 · MCO → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?