Schedule: FAA flight plans.

JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 1728 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

B6 1728 · MCO → EWR

took off 8:36 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 6:57 PM ET → 9:44 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to EWR?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into EWR at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EWR (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 1728 · MCO → EWR

Odds over time

How late will it get to EWR?