B6 282 · IAH → JFK

departs 6:17 PM CT · arrives 11:00 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 24h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±5 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ B6's recent on-time record

↑ 6pm departures from IAH are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

B6 282 · IAH → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?