Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
DL 1853 · GEG → MSP
departs 12:35 PM PT · arrives 5:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 8%
Fri 10/2 8%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 15%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
12pm departures from GEG are often late
↑
MSP is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GEG
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
Weather at each end
GEG (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.