tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1853 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

DL 1853 · GEG → MSP

departs 12:35 PM PT · arrives 5:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 94h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Saturday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
9% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 4.7d Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to MSP?

  1. On time or early
    90%
  2. 15–30 min late
    3%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    4%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    1%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    <1%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.