Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, September 29 Today
DL 1853 · GEG → MSP
departs 12:35 PM PT · arrives 5:29 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 9/30 12%
Thu 10/1 9%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±2 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave GEG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day
↑
Arrivals into MSP at that hour are often late
↑
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at GEG that day
↓
This flight has been late 15% of the time recently
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
GEG (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.75 mi Precip 0.90 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.