Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
DL 2015 · LGA → MSP
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 19%
Fri 10/2 26%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.