Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2015
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2015 · LGA → MSP
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:43 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 29h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 23%
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
21%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
21%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.