Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
DL 2186 · SEA → FAI
departs 9:41 PM PT · arrives 12:30 AM AKT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 19h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 21%
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at FAI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAI?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
FAI (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.