Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2186
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
DL 2186 · SEA → FAI
departs 9:41 PM PT · arrives 12:30 AM AKT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 22%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 20%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at FAI more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to FAI?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 1.0 in of snow forecast at FAI that day
↑
9pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
FAI (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.