Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2445
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
DL 2445 · MSY → LGA
departs 6:59 PM CT · arrives 11:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 46%
Fri 10/2 42%
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from MSY are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.