DL 2565 · MSP → BWI

took off 2:51 PM CT · expected to land 5:57 PM ET (scheduled 2:41 PM CT → 6:15 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BWI?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ MSP is busy at that time

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2565 · MSP → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?