DL 2565 · MSP → BWI

departs 2:41 PM CT · arrives 6:15 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 19h before departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BWI?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Arrivals into BWI at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2565 · MSP → BWI

Odds over time

How late will it get to BWI?