Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
F9 1234 · MCO → RDU
departs 2:45 PM ET · arrives 4:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 60%
Sun 10/4 35%
Mon 10/5 47%
Fri 10/9 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
2pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.