Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
F9 1234 · MCO → RDU
departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 7:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 46%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±1 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
22%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −11 pts in 24h
−11 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MCO
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
RDU usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.18 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.