Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
F9 1234 · MCO → RDU
departs 4:47 PM ET · arrives 6:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 46%
Sun 10/4 31%
Mon 10/5 25%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.25 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.