F9 4473 · ATL → STL

took off 12:36 PM ET · landed 12:51 PM CT (scheduled 12:21 PM ET → 1:16 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to STL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ ATL is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4473 · ATL → STL

Odds over time

How late did it get to STL?