Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4551
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
F9 4551 · MIA → LAS
departs 10:15 PM ET · arrives 12:22 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 54%
Fri 10/2 38%
Sat 10/3 35%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 39%
Tue 10/6 32%
Wed 10/7 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
38%
chance · ±4 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
38%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from MIA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.16 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.