MQ 3345 · DCA → CID

took off 12:11 PM ET · landed 1:07 PM CT (scheduled 11:50 AM ET → 1:18 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to CID?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at CID that day

↑ DCA is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CID (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip1.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3345 · DCA → CID

Odds over time

How late did it get to CID?