Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3417
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3417 · DFW → BHM
departs 4:39 PM CT · arrives 6:35 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 52%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 38%
Sun 10/4 24%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+25 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BHM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 58% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BHM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to BHM?
On time or early
38%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
4pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BHM
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
BHM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.