MQ 3436 · EYW → MIA

took off 11:54 AM ET · landed 12:20 PM ET (scheduled 11:27 AM ET → 12:36 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ MQ's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 11am departures from EYW are usually not late

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.92 in

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3436 · EYW → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?