Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3462
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3462 · CID → DCA
departs 12:40 PM CT · arrives 3:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 25%
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 18%
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at CID that day
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
CID (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.07 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.