Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
MQ 3515 · MIA → EYW
departs 9:55 AM ET · arrives 10:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 25%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
3.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day
↓
Arrivals into EYW at that hour are usually not late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.27 in
EYW (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.16 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.