Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
MQ 3515 · MIA → EYW
departs 9:55 AM ET · arrives 10:55 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 13%
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±4 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 26 kt, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day
↑
0.6 in of rain forecast at EYW that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Arrivals into EYW at that hour are usually not late
↓
Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.83 in
EYW (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 1,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.59 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.