Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3533
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3533 · DFW → OKC
departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 5:25 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Fri 10/2 54%
Sat 10/3 39%
Mon 10/5 18%
Wed 10/7 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
78%
chance · ±0 pts
+32 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
78%
Leave 15+ late
58%
Arrive 1h+ late
47%
Cancelled
25%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OKC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 78% · changed +32 pts in 24h
+32 pts
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 57% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Arrive at OKC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +30 pts in 24h
+30 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
How late will it get to OKC?
On time or early
16%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
27%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
25%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 2.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at OKC that day
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
4pm departures from DFW are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
OKC (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.62 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.