MQ 3537 · DFW → FSM

departs 10:49 PM CT · arrives 11:57 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at FSM more than 15 minutes late?

88% chance · ±0 pts +46 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FSM?

On time or early
11%
15–30 min late
43%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
28%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
12%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 10pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into FSM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.29 in

FSM (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3537 · DFW → FSM

Odds over time

How late will it get to FSM?