MQ 3577 · MIA → EYW

took off 12:26 PM ET · landed 1:01 PM ET (scheduled 12:28 PM ET → 1:38 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to EYW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 1 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at EYW that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MIA that day

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.27 in

EYW (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3577 · MIA → EYW

Odds over time

How late did it get to EYW?