MQ 3577 · MIA → EYW

departs 12:31 PM ET · arrives 1:39 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 26 kt, 0.8 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ 0.6 in of rain forecast at EYW that day

↑ 12pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.82 in

EYW (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.58 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3577 · MIA → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?