Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3585
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3585 · MIA → TLH
departs 10:30 PM ET · arrives 11:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 27%
Fri 10/2 23%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 21%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TLH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at TLH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TLH?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↑
10pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TLH
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.16 in
TLH (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.