Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3628 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

MQ 3628 · DFW → ECP

took off 7:50 PM CT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ECP more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±1 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ECP

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

ECP (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 3628 · DFW → ECP

Odds over time