Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3811
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
MQ 3811 · ILM → ORD
departs 1:21 PM ET · arrives 2:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 44%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 22%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 19%
Tue 10/6 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
56%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
56%
Leave 15+ late
42%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
56%
Yes 56%
No 44%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
43%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
22%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 1 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.