Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3878
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
MQ 3878 · SAT → DFW
departs 7:08 PM CT · arrives 8:28 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 73%
Fri 10/2 50%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
83%
chance · ±2 pts
+20 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
83%
Leave 15+ late
50%
Arrive 1h+ late
52%
Cancelled
44%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 74% · changed +20 pts in 24h
+20 pts
83%
Yes 83%
No 17%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 43% · changed +19 pts in 24h
+19 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed +31 pts in 24h
+31 pts
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +26 pts in 24h
+26 pts
44%
Yes 44%
No 56%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
9%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
18%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
44%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SAT that day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.