Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3906
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3906 · SAT → PHX
departs 8:41 AM CT · arrives 9:16 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 16%
Fri 10/2 19%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
MQ's recent on-time record
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
8am departures from SAT are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
PHX (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.