Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3936
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 3936 · DFW → FAR
departs 2:29 PM CT · arrives 5:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 52%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 31%
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at FAR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to FAR?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
2pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
FAR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
FAR (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.