Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4084
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 4084 · SAT → DFW
departs 1:44 PM CT · arrives 3:04 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 87%
Fri 10/2 52%
Sat 10/3 46%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 16%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
84%
chance · ±0 pts
+40 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
84%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
47%
Cancelled
23%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 83% · changed +40 pts in 24h
+40 pts
84%
Yes 84%
No 16%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +23 pts in 24h
+23 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +34 pts in 24h
+34 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
13%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
25%
Cancelled
23%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
DFW is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
SAT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.23 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.