MQ 4095 · DFW → BIL

took off 11:30 AM CT · landed 12:49 PM MT (scheduled 10:46 AM CT → 12:58 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at BIL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to BIL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.25 in

BIL (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling7,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MQ 4095 · DFW → BIL

Odds over time

How late did it get to BIL?