Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4166
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
MQ 4166 · DFW → TYR
departs 10:49 PM CT · arrives 11:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 47%
Fri 10/2 34%
Sat 10/3 10%
Sun 10/4 26%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at TYR more than 15 minutes late?
63%
chance · ±0 pts
+22 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
63%
Leave 15+ late
46%
Arrive 1h+ late
19%
Cancelled
6%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TYR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +22 pts in 24h
+22 pts
63%
Yes 63%
No 37%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Arrive at TYR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
How late will it get to TYR?
On time or early
35%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
6%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain forecast at DFW that day
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
TYR usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.30 in
TYR (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.