Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4174
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
MQ 4174 · ORD → RST
departs 9:00 AM CT · arrives 10:28 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 11h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 54%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3 11%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at RST more than 15 minutes late?
50%
chance · ±0 pts
+17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
50%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
7%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RST more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 50% · changed +17 pts in 24h
+17 pts
50%
Yes 50%
No 50%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at RST more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
How late will it get to RST?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
7%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at RST that day
↑
9am departures from ORD are often late
↓
RST usually runs smoothly
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 1.03 in
RST (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.