Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4208
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 4208 · DFW → BIS
departs 8:13 PM CT · arrives 10:59 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 60%
Fri 10/2 37%
Sat 10/3 27%
Sun 10/4 30%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at BIS more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±1 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
10%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BIS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 46% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at BIS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to BIS?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
12%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
BIS usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
BIS (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 9,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.