Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4261
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 4261 · AVL → DFW
departs 7:01 AM ET · arrives 8:44 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 48%
Fri 10/2 28%
Sat 10/3 12%
Sun 10/4 14%
Mon 10/5 14%
Tue 10/6 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
DFW is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at AVL that day
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
7am departures from AVL are usually not late
Weather at each end
AVL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.25 mi Precip 0.02 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.