Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4291
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
MQ 4291 · DFW → CID
departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 10:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 80%
Fri 10/2 45%
Sat 10/3 33%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 19%
Wed 10/7 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±0 pts
+21 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
27%
Cancelled
11%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at CID more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +21 pts in 24h
+21 pts
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 42% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at CID more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
How late will it get to CID?
On time or early
37%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
11%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 30 kt, 0.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at DFW that day
↑
7pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at CID that day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
CID usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.25 in
CID (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1.25 mi Precip 1.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.