Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5199 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

OH 5199 · CVG → DCA

departs 5:07 PM ET · arrives 6:53 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late nan% of the time recently

↑ 5pm departures from CVG are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

CVG (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5199 · CVG → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?