Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5602 LANDED 5:01 PM ET, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday

OH 5602 · DCA → SDF

took off 3:43 PM ET · landed 5:01 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ OH's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5602 · DCA → SDF

Odds over time