Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
OO 4012 · XNA → MSP
departs 5:11 PM CT · arrives 7:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 14h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 23%
Fri 10/2 13%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+15 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 8,833 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSP (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.