Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4012
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Thursday, October 1 Tomorrow
OO 4012 · XNA → MSP
departs 5:11 PM CT · arrives 7:09 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 43h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 35%
Thu 10/1
Fri 10/2 20%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±4 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave XNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, 1.0 in of rain forecast at XNA that day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
XNA usually runs smoothly
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
XNA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7.66667 mi Precip 0.95 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.