Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
OO 4251 · CIU → MSP
departs 7:10 AM ET · arrives 8:01 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 10%
Mon 10/5 8%
Fri 10/9 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave CIU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at MSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MSP?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at MSP that day
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at CIU that day
↓
MSP usually runs smoothly
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
CIU (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.13 in
MSP (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.