Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5434
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
OO 5434 · JAX → ORD
departs 11:33 AM ET · arrives 1:30 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 55%
Fri 10/2 25%
Sat 10/3 19%
Sun 10/4 22%
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 22%
Wed 10/7 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
53%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
53%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
30%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 53% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 45% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
45%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
13%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at ORD that day
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
OO's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 1.75 mi Precip 0.95 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.