UA 1470 · DEN → LIT

departs 5:39 PM MT · arrives 8:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LIT more than 15 minutes late?

67% chance · ±0 pts −20 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LIT?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIT

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

LIT (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling7,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1470 · DEN → LIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIT?