Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1511 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, September 30

UA 1511 · EWR → MIA

departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 4:16 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1511 · EWR → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?