UA 2196 · IAH → RDU

took off 12:13 PM CT · landed 3:33 PM ET (scheduled 12:03 PM CT → 3:55 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to RDU?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ UA's recent on-time record

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2196 · IAH → RDU

Odds over time

How late did it get to RDU?